British Prime Minister Tony Blair speaks during a visit to a children's HIV clinic at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto, May 31, 2007. Blair is on his final official visit to Africa before he steps down on June 27. Photo: REUTERS/POOL, STF (Alertnet)
'The problem as far as legacies goes is how well peace in Northern Ireland can compete with war in Iraq.'

Steve Tomkins reflects on the departure of Tony Blair

So farewell then, Tony Blair.

For someone who is reputed to be so concerned about his legacy, the resumption of power sharing in Northern Ireland could hardly be better timed.

At long last, loyalist and republican, Catholic and Protestant, Paisley and McGuinness are working together - and within two days he officially announced his departure, with the words ‘man of peace’ from Bertie Ahern ringing in our ears.

The New Labour government’s readiness to get involved seems to have been an invaluable part of this continuing process, and so Mr Blair’s credit is deserved.

Though Ian Paisley says, of ‘very well placed people from outside Northern Ireland’ that ‘without their interference and insistence upon their way and their way alone, we would all have come to this day a lot earlier,’ not everyone agrees.

The problem as far as legacies goes is how well peace in Northern Ireland can compete with war in Iraq.

Parallels

There are parallels. Both are civil wars where religion is horribly tied up with political and cultural divisions.

Both have involved terrorism in England, as well as so much more at home. And Blair has had a part to play in starting the one and resolving the other, thanks to his belief in intervention.

In scale, though, there is little comparison. In Northern Ireland the number of civilian deaths due to the Troubles is around 1,860 in 38 years. The war in Iraq has claimed 65 or 70 thousand civilian lives in four years, according to some sources.

And the differences are not just numerical. The Troubles in Northern Ireland brought in other parts of British Isles, but otherwise was an isolated conflict. But invading Iraq was a provocation to the whole Islamic world.

The stated aim of bin Laden’s jihad is to drive US troops out of Islamic lands like Saudi Arabia - a grievance shared by millions of Muslims, not just extremists. The invasion, obviously, could only fuel anti-western passions.

So even if the invasion had been successful it would have destabilised the Middle East and intensified Islamic anger.

Impossible

But success was impossible anyway. Iraq is a large country even more seriously divided into hostile people groups than Northern Ireland, and it took a dictatorship to hold it together.

Simply dismantle the regime, and what happens next, and what do you do about it?

The Bush administration and its allies simply don’t seem to have thought that far ahead. Hence catastrophe.

For all its economic and social success, this looks like the greatest legacy of the Blair government.

He is described as ‘messianic’ by those who want to crucify his reputation. In Ireland he may be prince of peace, but to the wider world he has brought not peace but a sword.