No TLC (Trato Libre Commercial) Meaning No Free Trade Agreement. Photo: Martin Piper
'Elections in Latin America seem unable to pass without some degree of medalling by either nation.'

Martin Piper looks at the remaining two candidates in the run off election for President of Ecuador.

The Ecuadorian presidential elections that took place on October 15 were indecisive.

Whilst eleven of the thirteen hopefuls were ruled out of the campaign, two candidates were too close to call, lacking the 10% advantage needed over the candidate in second place. Run off elections are due on November 26.

With widely differing political ambitions and a polarised support base, the election looks like it could be decided on the electorate’s belief in the proposed free trade agreement with the United States, and, to a lesser extent a closer kinship with a left leaning Latin America.

However, voter apathy and mistrust in politicians runs high in Ecuador, strikes and demonstrations have brought the country to a standstill and led to the early exit of three presidents since 1997.

Opposition

The country is rich in oil, yet half the population lives in poverty, unemployment remains high and there has been staunch opposition towards economic austerity measures such as privatisation and conversion to the dollar which have both lead to an increase in the cost of living, disproportionately affecting the poor.

The two remaining candidates are Rafael Correa and Alvaro Noboa.

Correa, a left leaning economist, is against signing a free trade agreement with the United States and has promised to restructure Ecuador’s $10 billion of foreign debt. He is popular with the nation’s indigenous Andean community and speaks Quechua.

“A free trade agreement with the United States would harm our country, not only commercially, but it would diminish our sovereignty and our potential for integration,” he said in a recent TV interview.

Correa believes in stronger union with other Latin American countries and would push for greater trade within MERCOSUR (Common Market of the South), a trade block comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

He argues that by not signing a deal with the US this will give confidence to Ecuador’s small and medium sized businesses and will enable them to compete with their economic equals in the south.

Business community

Noboa , Ecuador ’s wealthiest man, owning 110 companies, has strong links with the business community. He supports free trade with the US and promises, through foreign investment and his commercial ties, he can create the jobs needed for Ecuador’s people. At 56, this is his third attempt at the presidency.

Heir to his father’s fortune made from bananas, Noboa has his support base on the Pacific coast where bananas make up 10% of the export economy and where Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city and commercial hub are situated. “A free trade agreement with the US offers the best possible benefits for our country,” he said.

With such political stances, it is no surprise that Noboa is the favourite candidate of the Bush Administration in the US and Correa has been linked to Chavez of Venezuela.

Elections in Latin America seem unable to pass without some degree of medalling by either nation.

Noboa had promised to cut ties with Venezuela and Cuba once in power and Correa has been outspoken about George W. Bush, however as the run off approaches both seem to have toned down there rhetoric and are focusing on domestic issues.

However, the upcoming elections seem unlikely to be swayed too much by external influences. In a country where voting is obligatory, they are more likely to be determined by the number of votes each distinct region of Ecuador can rally and where the previous votes from the first round’s eleven eliminated candidates will end up.

Whoever wins will have to come up with results, or a disgruntled crowd will surely drive another president from office before he completes his term.

• BBC Profile of Ecuador

Martin Piper is a former employee of Christian Aid who now lives and works in South America.

These are personal comments and not necessarily the position of Christian Aid or its partners.

• Read other columns from Martin Piper